U.S. Republican presidential candidates started debating Wednesday night in the first big event leading up to next year’s national election. But former President Donald Trump skipped the confrontation in a calculation that he is so far ahead of his challengers that he did not need to debate them.
Nine contenders qualified for the debate being held at the Fiserv Forum in the midwestern city of Milwaukee, Wisconsin. But Trump, with a commanding lead among Republican voters across the country for the party’s 2024 presidential nomination, decided he had nothing to gain in a two-hour face-off with the other Republicans.
Trump has been indicted in four criminal cases encompassing 91 charges for actions before, during and after his presidency, which ended in early 2021. He is surrendering for arrest and booking in Atlanta, Georgia, on Thursday in connection with the fourth indictment, which accuses him of racketeering and interference in trying to upend his 2020 reelection loss in the southern state.
But he leads by about 40 percentage points over his closest Republican presidential challenger, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, with all the other Republican opponents getting less than 10% apiece in national polls.
In lieu of debating them, Trump released a pre-taped interview with conservative political commentator Tucker Carlson at the same time his Republican challengers were attempting to show party voters why they should be his main competitor.
With Trump’s absence, the television audience for the debate on Fox News channels could be down by millions of voters. But Democratic President Joe Biden, who is running for reelection and likely will face Trump or one of the other Republicans in the November 2024 election, told reporters, “I’m going to try to see — get as much as I can, yes.”
Asked what his expectations were, Biden smiled broadly and laughed.
“I have none,” he said.
Few of the Republican candidates have been outspoken in criticizing Trump. Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is a marked exception, and to a lesser degree, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson.
Others, such as DeSantis and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, have taken a more measured approach, hoping to convince a party base that remains loyal to Trump that they can implement the former president’s right-wing “Make America Great Again” agenda without his legal encumbrances and other controversies.
Then there is Trump’s former vice president, Mike Pence, who defends his ceremonial certification of the 2020 election results against Trump’s wishes. He is still in the low single digits in most polls of potential Republican voters.
In addition to Pence, Christie, DeSantis, Haley and Hutchinson, others who have qualified for the debate are Ohio technology businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum.
Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social on Sunday that with his large polling lead and his known accomplishments during his one term as president, “I WILL THEREFORE NOT BE DOING THE DEBATES.”
Trump was reportedly referring to the first two debates of the primary election schedule, including next month’s face-off in California, leaving open the possibility he is willing to face Republican rivals on stage later in the campaign season.
Trump has also stated he will not sign the Republican National Committee’s “loyalty pledge,” which asks all the primary losers to eventually support the nominee, one of the requirements for participating in the Milwaukee debate.
“Surprise, surprise … the guy who is out on bail from four jurisdictions and can’t defend his reprehensible conduct, is running scared and hiding from the debate stage,” Christie posted Friday on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, foreshadowing the rhetoric he is expected to unleash against the absent front-runner on Wednesday. Christie added that Trump is a “certified loser, verified coward.”
Even without Trump exchanging insults with Christie and others, the conversation at the event is anticipated to be largely about him, including the criminal charges he is facing.
Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington in Virginia, said the debate “creates a very, very difficult environment for the other Republicans, because they have their own ideas for what they want to do with respect to key issues like the economy or Ukraine or immigration. But that doesn’t mean they’ll have much of a chance to talk about it. They’ll be asked about Donald Trump.”
The debate will not be very consequential for Trump — he will still be the front-runner regardless of what happens. But for the others, there could be a viral moment, good or bad, that significantly changes their polling numbers.
Provost associate professor Jordan Tama of American University’s School of International Service, said, “We’ve seen from debates in past election seasons that candidates sometimes have a moment in a debate that ends up disqualifying them because they look bad. We’ve also seen moments in past debates where candidates have said something that got a lot of attention for them in a positive way and gave them a huge boost.”
DeSantis is the candidate who perhaps has the most at stake. Once touted as the party’s Trump slayer, the second-term governor has dropped in the polls. In a few surveys, the relatively unknown Ramaswamy has pulled even with or surpassed DeSantis for distant second place.
“I think DeSantis has the most to lose. Vivek Ramaswamy probably has the most to gain. There’s a lot of people coming over to him,” Sean Spicer, Trump’s first White House press secretary, told VOA outside the debate venue on Tuesday.
“This is his moment,” Farnsworth said of DeSantis. “Remember, in 49 other states, these people do not know the governor of Florida. They maybe have seen a little bit on the news here and there. But most of the coverage is focused on the former president. As a result, Ron DeSantis will be introducing himself to the country. And one of the things he needs to do is make a good first impression. If he doesn’t, he won’t be able to really change the dynamics of the race in a significant way.”
The Fox News moderators are also certain to attempt to draw the candidates out on why they would be a better leader than Biden, the presumptive Democratic Party nominee, who will be 82 if he is inaugurated for a second term in January 2025.
The first Republican Party debate also puts the spotlight on Wisconsin, one of the few states expected to provide a true contest between the two major parties in next year’s presidential election. Milwaukee will host the Republican Party’s nominating convention next July.
Four of the last six presidential elections have been decided by less than a percentage point in Wisconsin. Trump won narrowly in the state in 2016 before losing by a similar margin to Biden in 2020.
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