MOSCOW — Russian officials from President Vladimir Putin down say it makes no difference to Moscow who wins the White House on November 5. Yet anyone watching Kremlin-guided state media coverage of the U.S. election would conclude Donald Trump is strongly favored. State TV’s main Channel One news program this month showed video of billionaire Elon Musk and TV host Tucker Carlson denigrating Democratic candidate Kamala Harris before zooming in on what it cast as a series of stumbling performances. Harris’ tendency to burst into fits of laughter, something Putin himself spoke about sarcastically last month, has featured prominently in broadcasts and state TV has played compilations of her least eloquent statements during the campaign. By contrast, the same Channel One report portrayed Trump and running mate JD Vance as sure-footed and imbued with common sense on everything from transgender politics to immigration, but facing sinister forces as evidenced by assassination plots. The Kremlin says the choice of who becomes the next U.S. president is a matter exclusively for the American people to decide and that it will work with whoever is elected. It has denied steering coverage, although some former state media employees have spoken publicly about weekly Kremlin meetings at which guidance on different issues is given. The state media’s apparent preference for Trump may be no surprise. Trump has been far less openly supportive of Ukraine in its war against Russia than incumbent President Joe Biden or Harris, raising fears in Kyiv that it could lose its most important ally if he wins. Trump, who has repeatedly praised Putin over the years and boasted of having a good working relationship, last week blamed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy for helping start the war. This month he declined to confirm reports he had spoken to Putin on several occasions since leaving office in 2021 saying only: “If I did, it’s a smart thing.” Harris by contrast has called Putin “a murderous dictator,” vowed to continue backing Ukraine, and said that opposition politician Alexei Navalny’s death in prison was “a further sign of Putin’s brutality.” The Kremlin has denied any hand in Navalny’s demise. State TV has often showcased guest speakers on its prime time geopolitical talk shows who express a preference for Trump, even if their reasons sometimes vary. Andrei Sidorov, a senior academic at Moscow State University, told a major state TV talk show in October that Trump would be better for Russia because he would stir division that could trigger a long-held fantasy of anti-Western Russian hawks – the disintegration of the United States during infighting between its constituent states. “I am for Trump. I was always for Trump – he’s a destroyer. If he’s elected … then civil war will really be on the agenda,” Sidorov said, forecasting a Democratic win would see the same “crap” as now, continuing. “(But) Trump could really lead to our geopolitical adversary collapsing without any missiles being fired.” A 2017 U.S. intelligence report said Putin had directed a sophisticated influence campaign to denigrate Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and support Trump in the 2016 race for the White House. The Kremlin denied meddling and Trump denied any collusion with Russia during that campaign. Despite the two current candidates’ different approaches to Moscow, some Russian officials – who are navigating the worst period in U.S.-Russia relations since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis – have expressed wariness of both. Harris, they say, would mean a continuation of what Moscow sees as Biden’s proxy war with Russia “to the last Ukrainian.” Trump, who raised hopes in Moscow of better ties before he took office in 2017, is remembered for imposing sanctions when in the White House despite warm words about Putin. In Moscow’s eyes, he appeared boxed in on Russia policy by the wider U.S. political establishment. “I have no illusions. (When Trump was president) he had several conversations with President Vladimir Putin. He received me at the White House a couple of times. He was friendly,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recalled in September. “But sanctions against the Russian Federation were imposed under President Trump on a regular basis. As a result, we concluded that we need to rely on ourselves. We will never in our history count on ‘a good guy’ getting into the White House.” One senior Russian source said there were different views at top levels of the Kremlin about Trump, but confirmed some believed a Trump victory might not go well for Moscow. “Look what happened last time he became president. Everyone said beforehand that U.S.-Russia relations would benefit, but they ended up even worse. Trump says a lot of things but doesn’t always do what he says,” said the source, who declined to be named given the matter’s sensitivity. The same source questioned whether Trump’s purported reluctance to keep financing and arming Ukraine and his talk of being able to end the war swiftly would survive lobbying efforts from powerful U.S. factions who argue that Ukraine’s fate is existential for the West and that Kyiv must not lose. A second senior source, who also spoke on condition of anonymity, said Moscow was not expecting much from either candidate. Trump had been “pretty tough” on Moscow when in power, was worryingly impulsive and had tough views on Russia’s ally China, he said. The source added that he did not expect to see big change in Moscow-Washington relations whoever was elected. “Neither Trump nor Harris are going to change the relationship with Russia fundamentally. There is not going to be some great new friendship,” said the source. “The West views Russia and China as bad and the West as good and it is hard to see any leader changing a belief that is now ingrained within the Washington elite.”
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