A controversial memo from a U.S. Air Force general predicting war with China in 2025 may reflect a growing disconnect between the way the United States\u2019 civilian and military leadership view the relationship between the world\u2019s two largest economic powers.<\/p>\n
In the memo, which began circulating online over the weekend, General Michael Minihan opens with the stark statement, \u201cI hope I am wrong. My gut tells me we will fight in 2025.\u201d<\/p>\n
Minihan, in charge of the Air Force\u2019s Air Mobility Command (AMC), a 5,000-person unit focused on logistics, offers no evidence for his prediction of war between the U.S. and China other than a vague assertion that upcoming elections in the U.S. and Taiwan will create an opportunity for Beijing to attempt reunifying the self-governing island with the mainland. China has long claimed that Taiwan is part of Chinese territory.<\/p>\n
\u2018Aim for the head\u2019<\/p>\n
The general\u2019s memo orders units under his command to step up their training and readiness to be prepared \u201cto deter, and if required, to defeat China.\u201d<\/p>\n
In addition to broad directives about the AMC\u2019s logistical readiness, Minihan adds several specific orders, including the directive that \u201cAll AMC aligned personnel with weapons qualification will fire a clip into a 7-meter target with the full understanding that unrepentant lethality matters most. Aim for the head.\u201d<\/p>\n
A former C-130 pilot, Minihan has served in other senior roles in the U.S. military, including deputy commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command from September 2019 to August 2021, so he has a deep understanding of the Chinese military.<\/p>\n
Civilian-military split<\/p>\n
Minihan\u2019s comments appear to contradict statements by senior officials in the Biden administration, including Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. Earlier this month, Austin told reporters that the U.S. has noted increasingly aggressive behavior by China toward Taiwan but downplayed the possibility of a near-term attack.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe believe that they endeavor to establish a new normal, but whether or not that means that an invasion is imminent, I seriously doubt that,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
In a statement sent to VOA, Pentagon press secretary Air Force Brigadier General Patrick Ryder said, \u201cThe National Defense Strategy makes clear that China is the pacing challenge for the Department of Defense and our focus remains on working alongside allies and partners to preserve a peaceful, free and open Indo-Pacific.\u201d<\/p>\n
Asked about the Minihan memo specifically, the Pentagon forwarded a statement attributed to an unnamed Defense Department official saying, \u201cThese comments are not representative of the department\u2019s view on China.\u201d<\/p>\n
Other warnings from top brass<\/p>\n
However, Minihan is not the first senior officer to warn of looming conflict with China in recent months. In October, Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Mike Gilday suggested that U.S. forces need to be prepared for potential conflict with China as soon as this year.<\/p>\n
\u201cI can\u2019t rule that out,\u201d Gilday said. \u201cI don\u2019t mean at all to be [an] alarmist by saying that, it\u2019s just that we can\u2019t wish that away.\u201d<\/p>\n
During his confirmation hearings in 2021, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command head Admiral John Aquilino was asked about a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan. He replied, \u201cMy opinion is this problem is much closer to us than most think.\u201d<\/p>\n
In December, he said that people who were surprised by Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine last year should consider the possibility of a similar attack by China on Taiwan.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis could happen in the Pacific region,\u201d he said in an appearance at the Reagan National Defense Forum. \u201cWe shouldn\u2019t be surprised that it can happen.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u2018Very unwise\u2019<\/p>\n
Michael O’Hanlon, director of research in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, told VOA that he believes that the Minihan memo was a serious error, and one that ought to have been more sternly rebuked by the Department of Defense.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt conflates the importance of deterrence with the likelihood of war in a way that is, I think, very unwise, and potentially dangerous because of the potential [for creating] a self-fulfilling prophecy,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s at odds with U.S. government policy, which does not call China a looming enemy. It calls China a \u2018pacing challenge,\u2019 or \u2018our most consequential strategic competitor.\u2019 Those words were carefully chosen to say that we need to think about the possibility of war with China, with an eye towards deterring it. But we don’t need to think about its imminence.\u201d<\/p>\n
O\u2019Hanlon expressed concern that Minihan\u2019s attitude toward China is gaining currency in the U.S., creating the possibility that some small future crisis, otherwise containable, might serve as the spark for a broader conflict.<\/p>\n
\u201cI worry that he’s just a blunter version of an attitude that’s becoming more prevalent,\u201d O\u2019Hanlon said. \u201cI see this in a lot of the strategic community in the United States. There is an appropriate vigilance about China, and that’s all to the good, but we have to avoid demonizing them. We have to avoid thinking that the first crisis is just sort of the beginning of the inevitable fights and that we should get after it while we still are in the dominant position. That kind of attitude is a little bit too prevalent for my taste.\u201d<\/p>\n
No evidence of imminent threat<\/p>\n
\u201cThere’s no evidence to support the assertion that China is seriously contemplating an attack on Taiwan in the next few years. No evidence,\u201d Timothy R. Heath, a senior international defense researcher at the RAND Corporation, told VOA.<\/p>\n
However, Heath said he sees a significant divide between the way senior military officers regard China and the attitude of the United States government.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere is a surprising disconnect between the assessments being put out by senior political leaders and the statements by top military leaders, which express a much higher level of alarm and fear that an attack is coming or looming,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Heath said a combination of factors appear to have led to that disconnect. Political leaders, he said, tend to look at China as a strategic threat, but also as a trading partner and a potential collaborator in the fight against climate change. They see a country trapped in a major economic and demographic crisis, both of which have a higher priority in Beijing than reunification with Taiwan.<\/p>\n
Military leaders, Heath said, tend to focus more closely on the undisputed fact that the Chinese People\u2019s Liberation Army has grown more sophisticated and dangerous in recent years. They also have concerns closer to home.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere is a political angle here, with Congress thinking about slashing the defense budget,\u201d Heath said. \u201cThese generals \u2013 I hate to say it \u2013 they have an incentive to remind leaders of a potential major security threat that would require a strong defense.\u201d<\/p>\n
Chinese Foreign Ministry comments<\/p>\n
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning was asked to address the general\u2019s comments in a news conference Monday.<\/p>\n
\u201cTaiwan is part of China,\u201d she said. \u201cResolving the Taiwan question is a matter for the Chinese. The real cause of the new round of tensions across the Taiwan Strait is the [Taiwanese] authorities\u2019 continued act of soliciting U.S. support for \u2018Taiwan independence\u2019 and the agenda among some people in the U.S. to use Taiwan to contain China.\u201d<\/p>\n
She added, \u201cWe urge the U.S. to abide by the one-China principle and the three China-U.S. joint communiqu\u00e9s, deliver on U.S. leaders\u2019 commitment of not supporting \u2018Taiwan independence,\u2019 stop meddling in the Taiwan question, stop military contact with Taiwan and stop creating new factors that could lead to tensions in the Taiwan Strait.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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