Analyst Corner: Nifty expected to remain in 12,000-12,300 range

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Analyst Corner, Nifty, midcap, smallcap Indices, ARPU, ARPU customers, sensex, RJio, IUC plansThe Nifty ended 2019 on a strong note as it gained 12% to close near 12,150 zones, while the Sensex gained 14% to settle above 41,000 levels.

The Nifty opened with marginal loss and breached its sequence of making higher highs, higher lows of last two sessions. The index formed a negative candle on daily chart; while we are witnessing formation of Doji kind of candle with long lower shadow on monthly chart. The index is expected to remain in the range of 12000 – 12300 in coming days.

However, the overall trend is positive and we maintain our ‘buy’ on dips strategy till it holds above 12,100 levels. On upside, we may see an up move towards 12,250 –12,300 zone; while on the downside, the support is seen at 12,100 and then 12,000 levels.

The Nifty ended 2019 on a strong note as it gained 12% to close near 12,150 zones, while the Sensex gained 14% to settle above 41,000 levels.

On the broader front, midcap and smallcap Indices relatively underperformed but quality stocks managed to hold its gains.  On the sectorial front, financials and energy indices ended higher while pharma, auto and metals indices relatively underperformed.

Reversal in subscriber addition trend in telecom: After 10 months of weakness, the telecom industry expanded in Oct’19, with gross subscriber addition of 9.7m M-o-M to reach 1,183 million; active subscriber addition swelled 20.3 million to 981 million. This indicates that players are potentially focusing on quality subscribers.

In Oct’19, RJio launched its IUC plans, which supported active/MBB subscriber run-rate for both Bharti and VIL. Bharti has regained its top position in active subscriber market share with 31.5%. VIL has the highest market share of 31.5% in gross subscribers; however, RJio is inching toward the top spot with market share of 30.8%. Broadband subscriber adds stood at 18.6m in Oct’19 (+9.3m in Sep’19) to reach 624m, forming 63.6% (+60bp MoM) of total active subscribers in the market.

This healthy addition should support ARPU as MBB subscribers are high ARPU customers. We expect even better numbers in Nov’19, which would reflect the full month benefits.

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